Decentralized prediction market Polymarket is celebrating its role in accurately forecasting President-elect Donald Trump’s election win, positioning itself as a more accurate alternative to traditional polling. As individuals wagered on the race between Trump and Kamala Harris, Polymarket’s odds were based on real-time market dynamics, which participants believe offer a clearer picture of likely outcomes than opinion polls.
Polymarket’s platform was one of the first to project Trump’s victory on election night, with results reportedly appearing hours ahead of media outlets. As Polymarket CEO Shane Coplan explained, prediction markets differ from polls because each bet reflects a person’s genuine expectation of an outcome. The platform noted that its “high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets” were able to absorb new information quickly, giving participants an edge over polls.
The French regulator had been eyeing Polymarket — the crypto betting platform which showed Trump being favored to win the presidency — since before its recent surge in popularityhttps://t.co/Vw0R8pzJ14
— Victor Goury-Laffont (@Victorglaf) November 7, 2024
The platform’s success, however, has not gone unnoticed by regulators. French authorities are currently investigating Polymarket, which operates without authorization in France. The French National Gaming Authority released a statement confirming that it is examining Polymarket’s operations, and an official familiar with the investigation suggested that a ban may soon follow.
REPORT: The French Polymarket trader is set to rake in $48 million in profits and outsmarted nearly every mainstream media pollster in the process.
So how exactly did he outsmart the media pollsters?
According to the Polymarket trader who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, he… pic.twitter.com/kqZyEF78ZG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
Despite regulatory scrutiny, Polymarket’s recent success has increased its appeal. A French trader, for instance, earned an estimated $85 million by betting on Trump’s win, illustrating the potential profitability of accurate prediction markets. Supporters of platforms like Polymarket argue that decentralized markets are a natural evolution in forecasting, especially given the perceived limitations of traditional polls.
🇫🇷 JUST IN: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, faces a ban in France after a French trader won $19 million on a bet, prompting regulators to deem it illegal gambling. pic.twitter.com/LHnaEC1PLb
— ChainChampion (@Chain_champ1) November 7, 2024
While Polymarket’s approach has gained favor among prediction market enthusiasts, the rise of these platforms is expected to face significant regulatory hurdles. In Europe, where gambling laws vary widely, governments are beginning to question how to regulate online betting in decentralized markets.
As regulators consider next steps, Polymarket’s win signals a shift in how political outcomes may be forecasted in the future. Whether Polymarket’s influence continues to grow or faces limitations due to global regulations remains to be seen.
