While Putin insists China harbors no imperial ambitions, his hasty trip to Central Asia tells a far more anxious—and revealing—story of rising rivalry.
AT A GLANCE
- Putin’s post-election visit to Uzbekistan highlights Russia’s urgency to retain influence in Central Asia.
- China now dominates the region economically through trade and infrastructure deals.
- Central Asian leaders are publicly challenging Russia, signaling a break from Moscow’s historical control.
- Despite entrenched military and energy ties, Russia faces a long-term threat from China’s economic rise.
- The “no limits” Russia-China partnership is being stress-tested by deepening strategic competition.
Putin Rushes to a Shrinking Empire
Vladimir Putin’s first major international move after securing another term in office was a telling one: a visit to Uzbekistan, part of what used to be considered Moscow’s uncontested sphere of influence. The optics are impossible to ignore. With the Ukraine war grinding on and Western sanctions biting deeper, Putin’s urgency to secure loyalty in Central Asia signals Russia’s recognition that its post-Soviet dominance in the region is slipping away.
As detailed in The Conversation, Russia continues to cling to its historical presence through control of strategic energy assets and security partnerships. Gazprom and Lukoil remain embedded in Uzbekistan’s energy sector, and Russia dominates much of Kazakhstan’s uranium exports. But these levers of influence now function more like lifelines as Russia seeks economic breathing room amid isolation from the West.
Meanwhile, opportunistic Central Asian governments are leveraging the moment to distance themselves from Moscow’s orbit. Russia’s military might and labor markets still matter—but not as much as they used to.
China Expands, Quietly and Relentlessly
While Moscow flexes with gas and guns, Beijing builds—and builds quietly. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has become the top trading partner for most Central Asian states, eclipsing Russia’s economic relevance. Railroads, highways, energy corridors, and telecom infrastructure now link the region increasingly to Beijing rather than Moscow.
China’s outreach isn’t just economic. It has promised security cooperation and respect for sovereignty—areas once firmly under Moscow’s domain. Analysts note this is a subtle but effective challenge to Russia’s regional hegemony.
However, Beijing’s charm offensive comes with caveats. Central Asians are growing wary of debt-trap diplomacy and Chinese dominance in local markets. Human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang province—just across the border—have stirred suspicion in this Muslim-majority region. Still, Beijing’s influence continues to expand, while Moscow fights to hold ground it once took for granted.
Watch how Russia and China are battling for Central Asia.
Regional Pushback Gets Bolder
Not long ago, open criticism of Moscow by Central Asian leaders was unthinkable. Now, it’s increasingly common. At a 2022 summit, Tajikistan’s president openly demanded respect from Putin. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took it further, declaring that his country would not recognize Russia’s puppet “quasi-states” in Ukraine—an unmistakable rebuke.
These shifts reflect a growing sense of sovereignty among Central Asian nations, which are gradually moving from Moscow’s shadow. While still reliant on Russia for military backing and labor remittances, they are now actively pursuing alternative alliances with Turkey, China, and even Western countries.
Still, the risks are real. Any overt defiance of Moscow could provoke the same kind of hybrid aggression Russia has unleashed elsewhere under the guise of protecting “Russian speakers” or restoring order.
Fraying of the “No Limits” Friendship
Putin’s insistence that “[there is] nothing about domination in the Chinese philosophy” is an extraordinary bit of rhetorical tap dancing—especially as he watches Beijing quietly encroach on what he considers Russian turf. At a recent forum, Putin tried to paper over the cracks in the relationship by stressing Russia’s “special ties” to Central Asia. But the strategic fissures are widening.
The much-touted “no limits” partnership between Russia and China looks increasingly strained as they compete for influence in one of the world’s most strategically vital regions. Their alliance remains intact for now, but self-interest is already taking precedence over camaraderie.
For the United States, the evolving dynamic presents both risk and opportunity. As Russia and China test the limits of their partnership, Central Asia is emerging as a geopolitical swing state. America has largely been absent from this game—but it won’t stay on the sidelines forever.
