CNN data reporter Harry Enten highlighted on Thursday that President Joe Biden’s best chance for securing victory in the 2024 election relies on winning three critical states he narrowly carried in 2020.
According to the RealClearPolling average, Biden currently trails former President Donald Trump by 0.5% in a national head-to-head matchup. When independent candidates Cornel West, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, Trump’s lead increases to 1.3%. Enten identified Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as pivotal states that could determine Biden’s re-election.
“This is the road to 270 and it’s Biden’s best path based on the polls and past results. If you want to look here, it’s these yellow states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,” Enten explained to “CNN News Central” co-host Sara Sidner, showing figures from aggregated polls. “Look how tight they are here: Two-point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan, tied in Wisconsin. If he carries all three of these, Biden does, he gets to exactly 270 electoral votes.”
Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, Pennsylvania by 1.2%, and Wisconsin by 0.7% in the 2020 election. Currently, Trump leads Biden by 0.2% in Michigan, 2.3% in Pennsylvania, and 0.3% in Wisconsin in head-to-head matchups, according to the RCP average. On June 20, 2020, Biden led by 8.4%, 5.7%, and 5.4%, respectively.
When third-party candidates West, Kennedy, and Stein are included, Trump’s lead in these states shifts to 0.1% in Michigan, 2.9% in Pennsylvania, and 0.3% in Wisconsin, according to RCP.
Looks like Biden might need a map, a compass, and maybe even a GPS to navigate this road to 270!
