U.S. forces have burned through hundreds of critical Tomahawk missiles in just weeks of strikes on Iran, leaving stockpiles dangerously low for a potential showdown with China.
Story Snapshot
- U.S. Navy fired hundreds of Tomahawks in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, depleting a pre-war stockpile of about 4,000.
- Production lags severely at 72 planned for FY2025 and 57 for FY2026, with each missile taking up to two years to build.
- Recent uses in Yemen, Nigeria, and prior Iran ops accelerated the shortage, exposing readiness gaps under past administrations.
- RTX ramps to 1,000 annually, but multi-year delays threaten deterrence against China amid President Trump’s push for strength.
- Experts warn this vulnerability signals weakness to adversaries, demanding urgent congressional funding.
Operation Epic Fury Depletes Vital Arsenal
U.S. Navy warships launched Tomahawk cruise missiles during Operation Epic Fury, targeting IRGC command centers and air defenses in Iran. The strikes began the Saturday before March 19, 2026, with ground forces firing HIMARS in support. Within two weeks, reports indicate hundreds of Tomahawks expended, burning through years of production at prior rates. This rapid usage follows heavy deployments in Yemen against Houthis, Nigeria ISIS strikes last December, and Operation Midnight Hammer last summer on Iranian nuclear sites. Pre-war inventory stood at roughly 4,000 missiles from early 2020s estimates.
Production Bottlenecks Expose Past Mismanagement
Tomahawk production historically capped at about 90 missiles annually, with recent five-year totals at 322. FY2025 plans 72 units, dropping to 57 for FY2026, each costing $1.3 million and requiring up to two years per missile. RTX Corporation secured a multi-year deal this March to surge output beyond 1,000 yearly, yet supply chain limits push full replenishment into the late 2020s. Admiral James Kilby, former Chief of Naval Operations, testified in 2025 that stocks must fill for China contingencies, highlighting industrial base shortfalls revealed in CSIS 2023 war games.
Thirteen destroyers in the Middle East carry 150-250 Tomahawks each, plus Ohio-class submarines with 154 apiece, enabling standoff strikes essential for Iran’s terrain and China’s vast missile arrays. The 2003 Iraq invasion used 800 in one go, replenishable then but not now at current paces.
Strategic Risks in Indo-Pacific Face Off
Middle East operations drained munitions needed for high-intensity peer conflicts like war with China, where thousands would target land-based missile batteries. Analysts note a mismatch: precision Tomahawks suit Iran’s dispersed targets but fall short against China’s scale. Jack Buckby assesses the finite 4,000 stock as vulnerable, with even RTX’s ramp-up insufficient against burn rates seen in two weeks of Iran fighting. CSIS warns the industrial base cannot sustain such wars, urging alternatives like LRASMs and torpedoes.
Pentagon briefings reveal shortages, prompting a $50 billion congressional request. U.S. Central Command confirmed Tomahawk use in Epic Fury videos. This gap, built under prior fiscal mismanagement, undermines deterrence President Trump now fortifies against globalist overreach and endless foreign entanglements.Congress faces pressure to balance budgets against readiness, as low procurement signals weakness to Iran and China. Middle East allies rely on U.S. strikes, while defense workers gain from RTX expansion. Short-term, Iran ops shift to alternatives; long-term, multi-year rebuilds risk capability shortfalls into the 2030s.
Sources:
The US burned through more of its limited Tomahawk stockpile in Iran than it may need for China.
Tomahawk Shortage: The U.S. Military Has a Big Missile Problem After the Iran War
Tomahawks Keep War at a Distance–Until Stocks Run Out
Is US Defense Industrial Base Building Enough Tomahawk Missiles?
U.S. burned years of Tomahawk missiles in two weeks of Iran war, FT reports
