Swiss political scientist Dr. Louis Perron is raising doubts about the recent polling surge showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. In a recent interview, Perron suggested that the polling data could be skewed by voters misrepresenting their intentions due to social pressures.
Perron, who authored Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections, noted that voters often present themselves in ways they believe are socially or morally acceptable, especially when there is significant media hype around a candidate. He observed that Harris has recently enjoyed positive coverage in the mainstream media, which may lead some respondents to falsely indicate they support her, even if they do not plan to vote for her in November.
“There is currently quite a media hype about Kamala in the mainstream media, so some voters might not want to admit that they won’t vote for her,” Perron said. He referenced a common pattern known as the “shy Tory” or “shy Trump” voter, where individuals are reluctant to voice their true preferences due to societal pressures. According to Perron, this dynamic may explain why polls have historically underestimated support for conservative candidates in both the U.S. and the U.K.
Perron also emphasized that national polling tends to favor Democrats because of surplus votes from heavily Democratic states like California and New York. This bias, combined with potential polling inaccuracies, raises questions about whether Harris’ lead is as secure as it appears.
The expert concluded that while Harris’ recent polling surge is noteworthy, the real test will be in November, when voters make their true preferences known at the ballot box.
